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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 22-N.Harris up the middle to CHI 23 for 1 yard (58-R.Smith; 59-C.Marsh).

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.49 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model