Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 77

Chicago Bears 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to PIT 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 29 for 9 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). FUMBLES (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at PIT 25. 36-D.Houston-Carson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.82 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model