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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 85

Chicago Bears 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to PIT 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 42 for 6 yards (20-D.Shelley).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth -0.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model