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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CHI 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 17-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model