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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model