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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 31 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 3-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model