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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP