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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 84

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to NYG 26, Center-47-T.Sieg. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 40 for 14 yards (22-K.Nixon; 87-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model