4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 17

New York Giants 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model