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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:10) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.24 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model