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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 7

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP