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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 51

New York Giants 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LV 5, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 10 for 5 yards (31-K.Crossen). FUMBLES (31-K.Crossen), touched at LV 13, recovered by LV-32-D.Leavitt at LV 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model