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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 20

New York Giants 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 5-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.96 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model