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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 21 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to LA 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP