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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 25-S.Michel up the middle to TEN 34 for 2 yards (37-A.Hooker; 93-T.Tart).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model