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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 21 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to LA 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-J.Koski pushed ob at LA 17 for 7 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.33 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model