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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 8-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.26 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model