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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to LA 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model