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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to LA 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model