Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 21

(3:57) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to NE 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-J.Meyers.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.95 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model