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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 20

New England Patriots 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:20) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 20, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model