Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 80

New England Patriots 24 – Cleveland Browns 7

(13:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 66 yards to CLE 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model