Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 24

(10:26) 7-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to NE 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.93 EP
54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model