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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 2

Cleveland Browns 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 2, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model