4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(8:21) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass short right to 80-J.Landry to NE 5 for 7 yards (23-K.Dugger).

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP