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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 45

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to NE 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.83 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model