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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 45

Detroit Lions 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 32-D.Swift left tackle to PIT 35 for 10 yards (42-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.86 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model