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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model