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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 45-J.Cabinda up the middle to DET 36 for 2 yards (98-T.Charlton; 96-I.Buggs).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model