Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 65

Detroit Lions 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

(7:20) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 29 for 13 yards (42-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.42 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model