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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 52

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to DET 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.18 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP