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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 79

Detroit Lions 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to PIT 27, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 40 for 13 yards (38-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.59 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.26 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model