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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to DET 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model