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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 76

Detroit Lions 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 28 for 13 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin, 38-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.68 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP