Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Detroit Lions 0

(14:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 61 yards to DET 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond to PIT 39 for 48 yards (6-P.Harvin).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model