Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Indianapolis Colts 17

(13:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to IND 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model