4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to IND 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP