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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 86

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to JAX 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.11 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model