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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 6-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.02 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP