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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model