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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(:04) 15-M.Wright 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.02 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model