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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 6-M.Badgley 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP