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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to IND 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines. Penalty on IND, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.86 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model