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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 20 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 10 yards (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model