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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 6-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model