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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to SF 37, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model