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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 32

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model