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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(11:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at LA 29. 29-YAC

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.41 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model