Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 88

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Los Angeles Rams 7

(5:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to LA 48, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-49-T.Cannon.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.52 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model