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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model